Nolan Smith Is a Foundational Player for the Eagles, Not Trade Bait
On April 28, 2022, Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman put his pride to the side and made a difficult decision. Despite his ties to the University of Florida, Roseman decided it was time to add players from the football factory at the University of Georgia.
The Eagles added two former Bulldogs in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean during the 2022 NFL Draft. Both players made an immediate impact on and off the field in Philadelphia. Therefore, Roseman knew it was time to double down on his investment during the following year.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, Philadelphia selected three former Bulldogs, including edge rusher Nolan Smith. During Roseman’s draft day phone call to Smith, he admitted how hard it was to draft so many players from the University of Georgia.
“I’m a Florida Gator, you know how much this hurts my soul to take all these (expletive) Georgia Bulldogs,” Roseman jokingly admitted.
“You want to win, though, you want to win,” Smith replied.
Both Roseman and Smith want to win, which is exactly what they did last season en route to winning Super Bowl LIX. Yet despite the team’s success and Smith’s dominance, there are a few people entertaining a nonsensical trade idea.
Andrew Fillipponi of 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh appeared on 94 WIP and proposed a potential idea:
“If the Eagles called up the Steelers and said ‘we want T.J. Watt, we’ll trade you Nolan Smith and a late round pick,’” Fillipponi said. “I think they’d make that trade, I really do.”
Of course the Pittsburgh Steelers would make that trade. Yet it wouldn’t make any sense for the Eagles to do so. Smith is a 24-year-old ascending edge rusher that has helped completely transform Philadelphia’s defense both on and off the field.
Why in the world would the Eagles trade Smith away for a soon-to-be 31-year-old edge rusher that wants to be one of the highest paid defensive players in the NFL? It simply doesn’t make any sense.
While I understand all of the accolades that Watt has achieved throughout his NFL career, Roseman isn’t interested in rewarding players for what they’ve done in the past. Philadelphia’s philosophy has shifted in recent years, as they are focused on building something sustainable.
As long as Smith is on the Eagles, they’re going to have a tough, tenacious leader in the front seven of Philadelphia’s defense. There is a reason why former Eagles edge rusher Brandon Graham has praised Smith and views him as the next leader in the City of Brotherly Love.
While Smith showed impressive flashes of dominance during Philadelphia’s Super Bowl winning run, his impact extends beyond the football field. He embodies the hard working, blue-collar mentality that many people in Philadelphia can appreciate.
Smith spoke about his mindset after former Eagles cornerback Darius Slay called him one of the nastiest players on Philadelphia’s defense last season:
“I’m supposed to be on the port. I’m supposed to be on the graveyard shift right now, working and anchoring down boats and latches and stuff” Smith said.
“So I go out there and I just want to make my momma proud and make the ten guys next to me proud. When they turn on the film, they know three (#3) is going to fly around to the ball and I just try to do that every day, even in practice.”
After his performance last season, it’s clear that Smith has made both his momma and the ten guys next to him proud. Following a rocky rookie season in Philadelphia, Smith ascended to new heights as he grew to be a tone-setting force off the edge for the Eagles.
Smith broke the Eagles franchise record for most sacks in a single postseason, as he recorded four sacks on Philadelphia’s road to victory in Super Bowl LIX. In five career playoff games, Smith has recorded 4.5 total sacks, which is ironically significantly more than Watt.
Watt has recorded just one sack and eight total tackles in four career playoff games. While Watt is certainly receiving more attention than Smith from opposing offenses, their side-by-side stats from last season are quite eye-opening.
Here’s a look at how Smith measured up to Watt in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus:
Nolan Smith’s sack rate: 2.59% (11 sacks in 425 pass rushing snaps)
T.J. Watt’s sack rate: 2.00% (12 sacks in 599 pass rushing snaps)
Smith’s pressure rate: 11.76% (50 pressures in 425 pass rushing snaps)
Watt’s pressure rate: 9.51% (57 total pressures in 599 pass rushing snaps)
Smith’s win rate: 13.3%
Watt’s win rate: 13.3%
As you can see, Smith actually outperformed Watt in several pass rushing categories. Although as I mentioned earlier, there’s a clear difference between the amount of double teams and attention that both players received. Yet given the near seven-year age gap and difference in pay, the level of production is still notable.
Thanks to Pro Football Focus, we have the ability to dive a bit deeper into pass rusher’s production as well. PFF provides stats logged during “true pass rush reps,” which remove several factors that could limit a player’s ability to pressure the quarterback.
PFF removes plays with three or fewer pass rushers, play action passes, screen passes and short dropbacks or throws released in less than two seconds when calculating true pass rush reps.
Here is how Smith and Watt performed during those opportunities last season:
Nolan Smith’s sack rate: 3.53% (7 sacks in 198 true pass rushing snaps)
T.J. Watt’s sack rate: 3.39% (11 sacks in 324 true pass rushing snaps)
Smith’s pressure rate: 15.65% (50 pressures in 198 true pass rushing snaps)
Watt’s pressure rate: 12.65% (57 total pressures in 324 true pass rushing snaps)
Smith’s win rate: 19.4%
Watt’s win rate: 16.0%
Once again, Smith outperformed Watt in every category as a pass rusher. While Watt surely received more attention from opposing offenses, there is no denying Smith’s growth and impact as a pass rusher. Therefore, it’s silly to entertain the idea of trading Smith for Watt.
Smith is only entering his third season in the NFL and is under team control for at least the next three seasons. He has a cap hit of just $7 million over the next two seasons combined. Even if Smith is named to the Pro Bowl and the Eagles exercise his fifth-year option, he would likely make around $20 million in 2027.
Therefore, Philadelphia could have Smith under contract for the next three seasons for a combined total of $27 million. Meanwhile, Watt is set to have a cap hit of $30.4 million in 2025 and is seeking even more money on his next contract extension.
I understand that it’s early July and people are looking for things to talk about, but this isn’t it. Smith is a foundational player for the Eagles that could be here for the next decade. It would be a massive misstep to trade him away for Watt, at this point in their respective careers.
Roseman has learned from his previous mistakes of paying players for their prior accomplishments. Trading Smith for Watt might have been a move that the “Dream Team” Eagles would have made, but not this iteration of the franchise.
There is something special brewing in Philadelphia. The Eagles are building a sustainable monster that the rest of the NFL will have to deal with for the foreseeable future, and it’s clear that Smith is an important piece to Roseman’s puzzle.